“ These new criminal organisations act as rational actors and tend to maintain peace in geographic areas which they bring under their control because of their interest in protecting their business models“. In fact, as these new groups move into the areas traditionally occupied by the FARC, murder rates are decreasing. Moreover, these new organisations behave differently from their predecessors in that they do not commit irrational and indiscriminate criminal acts. Indeed, “ it is now more difficult to pinpoint the number of individuals mobilised by organised crime and associated with drug trafficking, because criminal groups are more atomised“. It also needs to be emphasised that new generations of drug traffickers are emerging who tend to operate in a more fragmented way. In addition, “ the suspension of aerial spraying in 2015 – which risked destroying up to one-third of coca plantations – led to less eradication of cultivated areas at a time when prices in traditional consumer markets for cocaine were rising and still rising today “. Those promises ultimately led to the accelerated growth of coca cultivation, with farmers expecting to benefit at a later stage from these expected subsidies. It is worth noting that, although it may seem contradictory, “ the agreement created the expectation of new revenue streams for cartel organisations and local farm owners based on the rational incentive created by the promises – manipulated and inflated by the FARC itself – of future state aid for the introduction of replacement crops among coca farmers “. Gold has become a de facto hard standard currency for drug traffickers, and the two business models – illicit gold mining and drug trafficking – are complementary, as they share suppliers and their respective value chains are closely linked and correlated.Īdditionally, the announcement of the 2016 Peace Agreement in Colombia sowed uncertainty among criminal groups due to the potential change in the operating environment of their business models. Nowadays, there are national and international reasons for this new expansion of criminal networks linked to the production and trafficking of cocaine in Colombia and beyond.įirst and foremost is “ the complementarity between the business models of cocaine production and illicit gold mining, as the latter has become a major catalyst for the former“. However, drug trafficking is still widespread and evolving. The importance given to Plan Colombia by the US government is evidenced by the fact that it has been allocated more than US$8 billion in funding since its inception, an amount that exceeds any other US foreign policy project after the end of the Cold War, except for those related to the Middle East, Afghanistan and Iraq. To combat drug trafficking, the US Congress approved Plan Colombia in July 2000, which was a cooperation agreement signed between the US and Colombian governments. This trend may seem counterintuitive, after the expectations generated by the Peace Agreement signed on Novembetween the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia ( Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC) – the very terrorist group that managed, protected, and was financed by the cocaine trade. Previously, these organisations had either existed on the margins of political institutions – with the exception of the failed attempt by the leader of the Colombian drug cartels, Pablo Escobar, to influence or control Colombia’s domestic politics, first indirectly and later directly – or were decentralised elements of the geostrategic rivalry between the United States (US) and the Soviet Union, but currently the cultivation, processing, wholesale and commercialisation of cocaine constitute one of the most profitable business models in the world.Īs a result, coca cultivation in Colombia has exploded in the last five years. With the end of the Cold War, international non-state groups involved in transnational organised crime and international terrorism emerged as political actors, and drug cartels are no exception. Menú ABC ABC de Sevilla La Voz de Cádiz ABC